Here are thoughts on container rates for all the people who are involved with international supply chains
in various roles and trade lanes. There are rates, and there is what rates are about in both rising rates and falling rate times.
Is This You? Many
manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers--as importers and/or exporters--are
involved with international logistics. There are likely multiple people inside
a firm who interact with it. As CFOs.
CEOs. Supply chain management. Purchasing.
Sometimes this
mix of people with different responsibilities are directly or indirectly at
cross purposes. This showed with retailers that overstocked inventory. This
capital spend hit P&Ls with transportation costs and balance sheets with
inventory.
At some point, if
volumes are large enough, comes the matter of negotiating rates—contract and/or
spot market rates. So what you need is an approach to how and what you buy from
container lines. Contracts and/or spot rates—and the split.
Purpose. The intent is to
align your supply chain with your rate approach. Give specificity to your
Request for Proposal (RFP) and negotiations. This means identify, focus, and
prioritize what you are doing. And, as a result, you will decommoditize rates
which are often defined as commodity pricing with no differentiation in what
you are buying. Also, you want to define what you are buying.
Buyer vs seller. There is a
view that it is about buyer vs seller. But there is also a view that is buyer
vs buyer and seller vs seller. What am I bid for my container volume? What will you pay
for my transport service?
Remember, not all buyers are the
same. And not all sellers are the same. You have a supply of volume. What are the
best deals you can get for it? Carriers have a supply of service. What are the best deals they can get for it?
All parties with similar ends. What am I bid, what is the demand, for my freight? What am I bid for my container carrying supply? Bidders vs bidders for that transport supply. Sellers vs sellers for that transport demand.
Keep this in mind as you frame your RFP and negotiations approach.
A rate is a
rate. Or is it? There have been
numerous stories and posts about various rate indices and how they are moving
and changing. What is missed is the question of what they mean.
Is this about
the container or about what is in the container?
and work-in-progress items that the
container holds. That is not a subtle distinction. That inventory and its
movement are central to your business.
Container
shipping and its prices are a derivative of supply chains. Supply chains drive
the shipping activity. Not the other way around.
Methodology.
Since it is about what is in the container, identify, focus, and prioritize
what will be shipping and what you are negotiating with container lines or with
freight forwarders.
One excellent approach
is to define/classify your inventory as A, B, and C.
These
designations cross product categories. Think of it as:
P “A”
items are those with high volume and high sales margin. Some may say it should high
revenue. But sales margin reflects profit potential. For manufacturers, this
would be the manufactured item, which in turn, blows out as the bill of
materials and the parts, assemblies, and components.
ü
“B” items have less volume and margin. They may also
be compatible with “A” items.
ü “C”
are slow movers. They may be considered sales and supply chain “dogs” for the
handling and cost they involve versus their volume and profit contribution.
If you have seasonality or other peak movements, then break down
those inventories too. Keep what is important in front of the container lines
and you. Stay focused
INVENTORY / PRODUCT |
SALES MARGIN |
VOLUME BY SUPPLIER |
VOLUME BY ORIGIN |
VOLUME BY DESTINATION |
A |
|
|
|
|
B |
|
|
|
|
C |
|
|
|
|
this as micro-mapping your
immediate/direct upstream supply chain. Make sure you are current and recognize
recent and planned changes—product, supplier, and origin port.
In a company, it would be
bigger with thousands, even thousands of thousands for some, of products,
parts, or whatever you are about. Data analytics would be great here.
This drill-down gives focus
to not only products but also to suppliers and origin ports. Remember, no part
of the organization has more data than the end-to-end supply chain. The methodology
provides priorities for your bids and negotiations. Also, include any planned
changes—with existing or new inventory or suppliers and port combinations.
Carriers should understand what you plan to do to bid properly.
Not recognizing what is being
shipped is to commoditize the products. There is no difference. Think about
that. You treat yourself as having commodity products while buying a commodity
service. Break that mindset. The results will show in your pricing and your
operations performance.
Service. This is what you are buying
to move those products. Transportation. Freight rates are the price you pay for
the service.
Unfortunately, it is not a
given. It is no longer looking at transit times and how they align with your
needs. Now, it may be your biggest sticking point, even contentious, in
negotiations. The product differentiation for rates also ties to what carrier
and service you buy.
Fast, reliable transport is
important for the ‘A’ products. It plays a role in the speed from purchase
order placement to being paid by customers for what you sell. Compressing that
cycle has financial benefits with its payment and inventory turns.
The problem is that container
lines are not selling and are not providing a dependable service. Blank
sailings. Slow steaming. Canceled services/loops. Each of these impacts the
flow of inventory across the A, B, C designations. Especially the A items.
Because of the unreliable
service, retailers, manufacturers, and distributors must carry more inventory
as a buffer. This means spending more capital to mitigate carrier actions. Think
of doing a financial analysis of buying extra inventory and what the freight
rate offset should be to balance against the purchasing outlay.
Or, think of what carriers
may want for your service. The cautionary note is that you are not the only one
on a ship. Will you be protected against canceled sailings and other tactics? Do
not hedge here. Get it in the open. Put it in your RFP.
Define what you think the
service should be. Start with the booking your supplier or you do and go through
the steps to the delivery destination based on your activity. Now define it. That
enables having agreed metrics.
Analyze the service
performance of carriers you will send RFPs to and what you require. Then
translate that into metrics and penalties for service failures. Remember these
are called “service” contracts, not time volume agreements.
The ands—surcharges
and disruption. You are prepared with the two key issues—rates and service.
But be aware of and be prepared for other charges—bunker adjustment factor
(BAF) and other surcharges. Fuel, aka BAF, should be based on a formula that a
carrier and you agree on. Recognize that other surcharges may occur—from those
that may arise the with Panama Canal and its drought to those for geopolitics
that are occurring in various places in the world. The amount of the surcharge
may not be known. But recognize that unknowns may occur and how they will be
handled. Again, they should be based on a calculation that parties agree to.
A side note. The
BAF topic will get interesting in the next few years as alternative fuels for
ships come into use as part of IMO 2030 and decarbonization.
The recent past
has shown the unexpected can happen. What happens when they do? Play the risk
and do nothing or plan now with container lines? Is it something you want to and can deal with
in contracts? Then put it into your bid.
Now What and Negotiations.
Your bids should go to container lines that can meet your prerequisites. Your
products, your suppliers, your origins. Focus on carriers based on your A, B,
and C? Use different carriers for A vs C items?
No matter how you issue your RFP,
there are negotiations with your carriers. Remember, it is not about the
container. It is about what is in the container. Those A, B, and C
products/parts. Besides freight price
and surcharges, this is also about the service needed for each inventory
segment. Stay the course in discussions on your package of needs.
This will not go into negotiation
techniques. Presumably, you have a way that works for you in various cordial
and not cordial environments.
There is internal analysis and
thinking. How well do responses meet your defined expectations and requirements
as to rates, surcharges, and service? Do you differentiate by product category?
“A” product discussions, with
their demand and sales/profit importance, are also about transit time and
carrier reliability. Then “B’s have less. And “C’s have a low priority here.
This can be a tricky matter with carriers canceling sailings to manage ship
capacity and, in turn, rates. Then there is slow sailing which does that too.
Both create issues with
managing inventory and fast turns from purchase orders to customer payments.
The latter is important for profitability and to mitigate either stockouts or
being inventory rich. This leads to the idea of splitting your contract and
market activity by category.
Benchmark the spot market vs what is offered to you. How do you see your market economy and the global economy? Against that, how important is service? That question comes into play in the spot market. There is a lack of service specificity playing
the market. That lack of
contractual commitment can influence how much volume to put under contract.
Will you do it based on your products, container lines, or a traditional price
way?
Service and related contract commitments
should have metrics that are measured for compliance. That keeps contract obligations
ongoing and in front of both parties.
There is a wild card here in
assessing what you put under contract. It is the potential for trade and
logistics disruption. Potential major disruptors involve geopolitics and
climate change.
Do you want to hedge your contract volume
for terms in the contract that protect you in the event of chaos? You want
something firm that you can depend on. Recognize that carriers may want something
from you in exchange. There is much to think about, negotiate, and act on.
Result. This approach is meant as a
guide to what you are buying with container lines and why—to align your supply
chain—its inventory and requirements—with what you buy, why, and with whom. No
matter whether bids and negotiations or market pricing, this is about
delivering your supply chain parts and products consistent with your needs. It
provides context for prioritizing and evaluating negotiation rates both
contract and spot in terms of moving inventory.
Remember, a rate is not a
rate. It differs by product importance and offers increased value to the
company.