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Friday, October 16, 2015
U.S. ECONOMY
Economic Takeaways of U.S. Consumer Sentiment, Factory Output
University of Michigan gauge of confidence rose in October
Fed reports second straight decline in factory production
What you need to know about Friday’s U.S. economic data:
CONSUMER SENTIMENT (OCTOBER)
University of Michigan’s preliminary gauge rose to 92.1, exceeding median forecast and first advance in four months, from 87.2
5- to 10-year inflation expectations dropped to 2.6 percent, matching the lowest since 2002
Consumer expectations index rose most since January, views of current conditions also improved to three-month high
Gauge of buying plans for household durable goods highest since 2007
The
Takeaway: Consumers seem to be shaking off U.S. growth worries fueled
by stock-market turmoil and softening foreign economies, instead turning
their attention to prospects for income growth as the labor market
continues to tighten. Households’ expectations for personal finances
improved to their highest level since 2007, and some 48 percent of
respondents projected good times for the economy over the next five
years, up from 41 percent in September. Meanwhile, subdued inflation and
borrowing costs are green lights for Americans planning to buy
big-ticket goods such as cars and appliances. What’s more, consumers
also showed a greater willingness to use credit or their savings for
such purchases.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (SEPTEMBER)
Factory output fell 0.1 percent, the third decline in the last four months
Production at manufacturers, mines and utilities dropped 0.2 percent
Output
of motor vehicles/parts climbed along with consumer goods, while
production of business equipment and construction materials decreased
The
Takeaway: Bloated inventories, which rose in the first half of 2015 by
the most on record, a stronger dollar and weaker overseas economies are
hindering factories. Auto-making is one of the few bright spots for the
nation’s producers. Output of cars and parts is up an annualized 7.1
percent this year, while production of everything else is down 0.1
percent, according to Morgan Stanley. September industrial production
was helped by warmer weather, which encouraged more electricity use.
Mining remains hamstrung by weakness in the U.S. oil fields, with
drilling of wells down another 4 percent from August and a whopping 56
percent from a year earlier.
JOB OPENINGS (AUGUST)
Fell to 5.37 million, second only to July’s all-time high of 5.67 million
Number of people voluntarily leaving their job was little changed at 2.74 million
About 1.5 unemployed Americans vying for each job opening, down from 1.8 leading up to the last recession
The
Takeaway: The figures underscore a tight labor market, which softened a
bit as companies assessed the impact of weaker global demand on their
business. Vacancies remain high relative to the recent slowdown in
payrolls, according to Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a
development he says can be explained by businesses having trouble
finding qualified help.
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