Friday, August 7, 2020

AMAZON, RETAIL, E-COMMERCE, CONTINUING COVID, AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT --Oh, Yeah, and the Big Bad Wolf, Amazon--


The pandemic has had a significant impact on businesses and the economy.  And the longer CoViD continues without being contained, the greater will be the change in how businesses operate. 
E-commerce has been one segment that has seen growth, given lockdowns, and concerns about social distancing.  The surge in online sales will likely continue.  Coronavirus is an e-commerce accelerator.  And with the extended pandemic, customers may continue to shop online.

Supply chain management, the driver of order delivery velocity that made e-commerce successful, should face significant transformation.  From e-commerce to the global pandemic, the strategic importance and criticality have been validated. 

With e-commerce being strong, many retailers have been selling online.  E-commerce is a customer demand for buying and order delivery service.  To put that into a competitive context, let's talk about the big dog in the e-commerce fight—Amazon. 

Amazon created order-delivery velocity that made them successful with, pre-CoViD, an almost 40% market share, and made e-commerce viable. They crafted customer convenience. Delivery to customers.  No going out to stores in hot or bad weather.  Buy from your home.

They built a new supply chain management with end-to-end velocity—one that is disruptive innovation.  This supply chain gives them control of the movement of products from origin factory to customer delivery.  Part of this supply chain is its transportation and logistics infrastructure.  They did reverse outsourcing and brought service in-house. Generally, in-house logistics/transportation services are lower cost than using outside providers.

·       Freight forwarding.  Amazon does its own forwarding from China.  Think about that.  There they are upstream at the start of the supply chain.

·       Cargo airplanes. They will have 80 planes by 2021.  These increase the speed at which they can move products.  

·       Warehouses.  Amazon has very large distribution centers.  More than 175 of them worldwide with 150 million square feet.  Over 100 are in the US. Now they are increasing their warehouse footprint by 50% in 2020.  A sign they see the pandemic business surge will hold.  Think of the proximity these warehouses give them to deliver orders quickly.  It also aids with a likely Black Friday online buying instead of consumers going to stores and with Christmas buying.

·       Delivery service. For the last mile, they have  60.00 trucks with another 100,000 ordered.  They are estimated to be the fourth largest delivery service in the US.  Bank of America says their delivery service could be worth up to $230 billion by 2025.  Note, that value was set before the CoViD e-commerce surge. So that value could go higher.  Think of what this delivery capability means as USP, UPS, and FedEx struggle with the e-commerce volume surge and the holidays. A delivery buffer and more.  In July, Amazon delivered nearly 2/3 of its online packages.  That is up from 54% the July before.  And, given the order swell, is even more significant.  It also provides a buffer from the price increases of UPS and FedEx—a competitive advantage.

·       Drones. They have been authorized to fly commercial delivery drones. Think of it. Faster delivery of orders, such as same day.  And do it beyond the visual line of sight.  It also provides supply chain resilience. Last year, they debuted an electric delivery drone that can fly 15 miles and carry shipments/parcels of 5 pounds.

·       Technology.  Having so much of their own warehousing, delivery, and related infrastructure provides a foundation for the important end-to-end supply chain visibility.  Plus, Amazon has its web service, aka, the cloud.

·       People.  They have 1 million employees.

This is some serious scale and supply chain competition.  All this framework positions them to handle more volume and to move inventory faster for improved order delivery speed.  In other words, it ups their competitive position.

Some retailers and CPG/FMCG manufacturers with stores are using their store network as micro-fulfillment centers.  These provide location, location, location for their customer base.  The location helps with the move toward same-day order delivery.  It also makes stores dual-purpose facilities—retail and e-commerce.

The trade-off to the location is stores are not as efficient, and hence cost more than warehouses, for order-picking and preparation.  The dual-purpose also comes into play with inventory.  If store sales remain soft as the coronavirus continues and are used for online orders, then inventory planning and moving through the end-to-end supply chains become more complicated with their dual usage of store and online--and differing inventory requirements for each.  The next question for stores as e-commerce fulfillment is how they position them as to delivery to customers—and customer convenience—or for customers going to stores for curbside pickup.

Amazon has been aggressively creating its end-to-end supply chain that delivers orders quickly. They have not stopped during the pandemic.  All this adds to what is required to compete in the online reality of the new normal.  

For those that have been slow getting your e-commerce supply chain, ask yourself what your plan is to be competitive in the e-commerce business with order speed.  How do you plan to compete—either against Amazon or just for your business?  Either way, customers look at order delivery speed.  If it helps, think of order delivery velocity as customer retention.

Amazon has done its supply chain differently.  What if you do yours that way—not the same old?  And this does not mean trying to replicate what they have done.  For example, design your supply chain from the customers back through to your suppliers. That makes sense since e-commerce is about order delivery.

A takeaway from the pandemic will likely be the strong use of online buying for both B2C and B2B.  For manufacturers, that can become about your manufacturing to delivery order speed.  Perhaps more so with Build to Order firms.

Resilience is the buzzword thrown around with CoViD—so you will be ready for the next global crisis.  I also see fluidity as a need.  It is more than flexibility.  Dealing with the changes and challenges that will come as CoViD continues and the transforming as the new reality evolves.  Plan A could become Plan D.    

Amazon came to dominate e-commerce because other firms were slow to see what was happening and to change their supply chains and step up to be a serious player.  A few have stepped up to the challenge.  Still more need to.  The pandemic has made it essential. 



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