Tuesday, February 25, 2020

E-COMMERCE SALES STATISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

eCommerce sales. The New Supply Chain Management drives successful ones. Leaders. Laggards. And those not even registering. Keep ignoring the New Supply Chain. The results show. 


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Friday, February 21, 2020

Tom Craig Speaking at SAP

I am pleased to be a speaker at the SAP EAM SCM conference in San Antonio, March 16-18. I will be discussing the future of Supply Chain Management as part of a great conference. For info, go to: https:/https://sapeamconference.com/  I may be able to assist you with a possible discount.
Contact Tom if you want him to lead a great discussion on what is happening with supply chain management, the New Supply Chain Management. and The New Supply Chain Management Is Disruptive Innovation.  And more. From domestic to international.

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Monday, February 17, 2020

PANDEMIC UPDATES: SUPPLY CHAINS / TRANSPORTATION / LOGISTICS / TRADE / MARITIME

These are thoughts and articles on what has happened and is happening with coronavirus in terms of trade, logistics/transport, and supply chain management for manufacturers and retailers.  More content is added as this story develops. IT IS NOT QUITE IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER.  Content may be positioned and repositioned based on importance or commonality with other updates and comments.:


Let's talk Supply Chain Resilience. Business Continuity. Two parts. Complexity. Technology. Build resilience. Reduce Supply Chain risk. Transportation & logistics providers. Suppliers. Products. manufacturers. retailers.
http://ltdmanagement.blogspot.com/2020/08/lets-talk-supply-chain-resilience-think.html
You need an action plan for your post-pandemic Supply Chain Management. Check out my ideas for your plan. manufacturers retailers risk resilience technology

Supply Chain Management people are working hard to deal with CoViD. At the same time, they need to be planning Supply Chain Management after coronavirus. The pandemic has elevated the attention on and importance of SMC. Read my ideas on this. manufacturer retailer https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/post-coronavirus-pandemic-supply-chain-management-what-tom-craig/

Pre-lockdown, I wrote the New Supply Chain Management is Disruptive Innovation. CoViD proved SCM is strategic & critical. You should think about disruptive innovation as you do you post-pandemic Supply Chain plan. Read about the disruptive innovation at: 
http://ltdmanagement.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-new-supply-chain-management-is.html
Risk and Resilience. A lesson learned for manufacturers, 3PLs, retailers, transportation & logistics providers http://ltdmanagement.blogspot.com/2020/05/wake-up-call-retailers-3pls.html A pandemic Supply Chain Management lesson. Criticality, risk, resilience, & nonlinearity--the Upstream Supply Chain. Blend SCM & Procurement. . Read at: http://ltdmanagement.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-nonlinear-supply-chain-in-linear.html View my ideas on the Future of Supply Chain Management: Post-Pandemic. Points for your new Supply Chain that will arise from CoViD. Validated, critical. Resilience Risk Chain Of Custody Technology Blockchain Digitization manufacturer retailer https://www.slideshare.net/nitny/future-of-supply-chain-management-post-pandemic Future of Supply Chain Management: Post-Pandemic.  Hear my views on what you as manufacturer or retailer should consider. Resilience. Risk. Technology. Digitization. Blockchain. Chain Of Custody. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WQ8PVkKo90&t=4s

E2E Supply Chains are having transport problems--upstream & downstream. Capacity--both actual & controlled. Creating a reverse demand shock with failure to perform--by providers & shippers. What is it doing to end-customers & economic rebound? maritime Last Mile trucking
Lots of action around the global movement of a CoViD vaccine. But they are fragments of potential transportation & other logistics components. Need an E2E Supply Chain plan. Define requirements. How to integrate. Drill deep. Finds gaps. Do for each possible vaccine origin. Some thoughts.
What is the future of Supply Chain Management of the future? Think beyond technology.

What if the new normal for E2E Supply Chain Management is VUCA--Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, & Ambiguity. Dealing with these is not new to SCM. But if constantly....
Great for attention. SCM strategic was set pre-CoViD with e-commerce. CoViD validated it & its criticality. Highlights more visible Supply Chain & transportation. transformations. Needs depth on the strategy, design, & , most important, E2E operations.

Is there a point where container line blank sailings become anti-customer, anti-Supply Chain? Given the fluctuating CoViD economic uncertainties. maritime manufacturing retail
This warehouse story sounds like one of those--anything is possible when you aren't the one doing the work. Doubly questionable given how much these front line workers kept things going during the lockdown/quarantine. No rest for the weary.
Have container lines taken pursuing highest revenue to a level that invites, even demands, regulatory action? maritime
China. Trade. Reshoring. Supply Chain. Go upstream & go deep. Supply Chains within supply chains. Complex. Nonlinear. Suppliers suppliers. Similar with resilience & risk reduction.
With the uncertainty of CoViD & the economy, managing end-to-end Supply Chains is very challenging. Plans keep changing & beyond agile & other buzzwords. Reality sucks time for manufacturers, retailers, suppliers, transportation/#maritime, logistics? procurement inventory

While retailers make customers go to stores to pick up their e-commerce orders, Amazon is working on drone delivery. Can mean faster order delivery doing own service. Not pay outside service. Is resilience. Their competition is doing what?

Is the Supply Chain impact of the global pandemic a black swan (with due recognition to the resilience buzzword) or an acceleration of issues that were unfolding?
Containers lines & container shortage. Prioritizing where the rates are highest--transpacific. So how will European firms manage their Supply Chains? Is who gets equipment also a shipper/BCO vs forwarders matter? What a tangled web....

Amazon. Some see the logistics/transport threat. What if it is a 3PL threat? As a 3PSCM. Based on its proven E2E Supply Chain performance. More than a rebranding of 3PL. Think of it for potential customers as a pandemic SCM takeaway of its strategic & critical importance.

From grocery to retail to e-commerce, slow down of consumer spending. Unemployment. End of stimulus checks. And more. Impact on E2E Supply Chains & Procurement. And its ripple effect on trucking/transportation, warehousing, & logistics.

Cool Chains. E-commerce accelerates. Is this a niche that can weather pushes as to Supply Chain resilience & reshoring? Food/produce? Pharmaceuticals? Chemicals?

For reshoring & resilience, keep this example in mind. A next pandemic cause can hit factory employees near you. And in this case, add the impact of lockdown buying to stress the Supply Chain. Go deeper into your risk reduction design.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/Hormel-supply-coronavirus-inventory/584176/

In a global pandemic, there are stories of business program. From lean--here--to reshoring. The need is not Monday morning QBing. It is presenting new Supply Chain ways or improvements to prepare for the next pandemic. It is about change & resilience.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-arent-there-enough-paper-towels-11598020793?mod=djemlogistics_h
There were blank sailings before CoViD. Now with the continuing pandemic & recession, how do Supply Chains deal with ongoing container line service irregularities?  retailers  manufacturers  maritime

The hit as to freight budgets. And managing Supply Chains with delays between book and container shipping. Is this the new normal for maritime? retailers manufacturers forwarders OTIs BCOs 
https://theloadstar.com/shippers-ocean-freight-budgets-about-to-explode-as-rates-hit-new-highs/

How much of what transport & logistics are seeing as to volume reflects weak demand vs uncertain demand (aka, hedging bets)? maritime trucking retail manufacturing

Before CoViD, and still, Supply Chain, logistics, transport, maritime, warehouse stories reflect what large, deep pocket MNC/large corporations are doing to deal with the pandemic. SMEs are not adequately covered. When they need assist the most.

US importers paying for empty trucks going to Mexico in order to be able to ship north.
https://theloadstar.com/us-importers-forced-to-pay-for-empty-truck-runs-to-get-goods-from-mexico/

ITC to investigate trade and Supply Chain challenges for CoViD related goods.
https://www.strtrade.com/trade-news-resources/str-trade-report/trade-report/trade-and-supply-chains-for-covid-related-goods-are-focus-of-itc-investigation?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT0ROalpEQm

There is the e-commerce surge & its order delivery speed. Backed by DCs designed for online. And there are warehouses built for & on stop and start logistics/Supply Chains. What is the future for these facilities located at ports, logistics parks, & elsewhere?

China. What does this mean to global trade, Supply Chains, imports, maritime, transportation, logistics?‬
https://www-wsj-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/chinas-economy-is-bouncing-backand-gaining-ground-on-the-u-s-11598280917

What percent of e-commerce grocery orders require product substitution of what customer wanted? A not-discussed inventory/out-of-stock issue?


 Remember. Supply Chains are about the flow of products, and products are not digital. That is why your supply chain resilience must be about more than technology. Or you can be leaving risks on the table.

From maritime to Last Mile delivery, let's play capacity roulette. Place your wager. Is it me, or is this what seems to be going on with transport & logistics providers during the pandemic economy?


Maersk. Making significant profit during a turndown pandemic. For an asset / capital intensive business. A Harvard case study? Discipline? Collusion--have to ask that? maritime

It took a pandemic. For passenger airlines to step up their Air Cargo capabilities.
https://theloadstar.com/american-and-delta-ramp-up-their-cargo-focus-in-bid-to-catch-up-with-united/

 The longer CoViD goes on, the greater the change that is coming to Supply Chains, trucking, logistics, maritime, Air Cargo, transportation, & trade for retailers & manufacturers. For those who fear change....
The longer CoViD continues, the greater will be the change to retailers, manufacturers, & their Supply Chains. How will risk aversion firms handle it?

CoViD validated the criticality & strategic importance of Supply Chain Management operations. Meanwhile SCM planning has been turned upside down.

Interesting. Retail inventory. Reflects lockdown effect & what consumers wanted. What about those inventories that were stopped in transit as businesses closed then? How real now are those pre-CoViD inventory planning models?
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/coronavirus-reopening-inventories-sales-ratio-volatility/583660/

Besides lay off staff, what are transportation & logistics providers doing to build their resilience? What you do may affect if manufacturers & retailers should risk continue using you.

The cloud. Supply Chain. Resilience. Logistics. Transportation. Visibility. AI. Data. Will it mean switching providers for manufacturers & retailers?
Meanwhile, as container lines cancel sailings, China rail shipments continue surge. maritime and BRI Belt And Road.
Oil Demand Faces Bigger Coronavirus Shock Than Previously Thought. A signal as to further global economic impact across trade, Supply Chains, maritime, logistics, transportation?

CoViD costs. trade. transportation. air. maritime. inland. Move to digitization - customs ‬
From Broadway to how long Google employees work from home to Deutsche Bank forecast, it may be 2021 or 2022 for economic recovery. What is Plan D for retailers, manufacturers, & their Supply Chains?
https://www.bizjournals.com/newyork/news/2020/06/29/broadway-will-remain-closed-through-sept-6.html

Take it to global trade, maritime, air cargo, & Supply Chains of retailers & CPG / FMCG manufacturers. export import pandemic

Deutsche Bank does not expect US consumer spending to recover to 2019 levels until beyond 2022. Now domino that retail effect to its supply chains & their transportation, trucking, maritime, airfreight spend for store inventory. And refocus on e-commerce & its different supply chain & logistics & transportation.

 Now forecast what it means to retail & the store side of their Supply Chains. Then to CPG / FMCG manufacturers & their Supply Chains. Now roll it up & what it means to trucking, maritime, logistics.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-to-keep-employees-home-until-summer-2021-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-11595854201?mod=e2tw

 What is happening with retail, manufacturing, & their Supply Chains is the new normal. Uncertainty. Rapid response. Fluidity. Small procurement lots. Throw out the book on the good old days of SCM. Transportation, logistics, maritime, air cargo--get ready. COVID19


Will UPS or FedEx collapse under the volume pressure of CoViD e-commerce surge & growth, then Black Friday likely being more online than in store, & Christmas? Yes? No? Which one, if yes? retail CPGFMCG manufacturer

Can container lines/maritime continue their discipline past CoViD? How will post-pandemic, new normal Supply Chains, procurement, trade, retailers, & manufacturing deal with the service unreliability?


 Does anyone know what the new normal will be & when it will occur? Uncertainty from CoViD & the economy. Spikes. Waves. And what is means to retailer & manufacturer Supply Chain. Is resilience the real key, or is it the ability of SCM to adapt to constantly changing events?

 Am thinking the new normal for retailers & manufacturers will be fluidity. Ongoing change. And what it means to E2E Supply Chains & their resilience.
A sign of CoViD uncertainty by retailers & manufacturers--CPG / FMCG as to using air freight? Buy as needed, not stock up as supply chain inventory? An indicator of a weak Peak Season? procurement
https://theloadstar.com/air-freight-rates-still-rising-the-last-thing-shippers-want-in-this-market/

 Underlying issue for retail, not just toys, is CoViD uncertainty as it makes store rebounding more of a challenge. Have knee jerk reactions in their supply chains & what is happening with transportation rates, especially inbound air cargo & maritime.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/toys-are-selling-but-mattel-and-hasbro-arent-cashing-in-11595869248?mod=djemlogistics_h

 With pre-CoViD e-commerce market shares, how & where do 3PL providers fit in? Parcel size orders? White glove? Bulk, large? Last Mile? What percent of the online market do they handle? Big players? Or chasing small pieces?

 The longer CoViD continues, any wagers on how robust the future of store retail will be? And its Supply Chain & logistics/ transportation infrastructure?

 Risk if recovery being years, not months. What does that scenario do to retailers, manufacturers, and their Supply Chains?‬
https://www-wsj-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s-companies-lose-hope-for-quick-rebound-from-covid-19-11595151000

 The longer the pandemic goes, the greater the change I see in a new reality & will run the gamut Supply Chains, container lines, transportation, logistics, retail, manufacturing. This is more of a rebuild than reset & in concert & conflict with less risk & more resilience.

What then do manufacturers do for pandemic Plan B and C? And their E2E Supply Chains?
https://www.industryweek.com/leadership/strategic-planning-execution/article/21137035/ceo-survey-shows-major-attitude-shift
Those retailers who were laggards with e-commerce & the Supply Chain that drives it--have they waited too long to act? Can they do what is required during the pandemic?

And barely half way thru 2020. Pandemic and Retail Carnage deepens. And their E2E Supply Chains.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/retail-carnage-deepens-as-pandemics-impact-exceeds-forecasts-11595410201

 How does this fit in with those who want reshoring? How does the US' pandemic play with the reshore approach? Answers here are a serious Supply Chain / procurement issue.

The likelihood of retail & CPG / FMCG manufacturers facing waves of economic pickup then slowdown will mean uncertainty on their E2E Supply Chain operation performance. ‬

Supply Chain Management is about the E2E movement & handling of products/inventory/SKUs. That is what SCM resilience must be built on. manufacturer retailer

To reshore or not to reshore. That is the Supply Chain question. No perfect or simple answer. Even as to resilience and risk.
Supply Chain Resilience. Key is SCM ops. Map & analyze E2E. See complexity, nonlinear, & supply chains within supply chains. Include suppliers of suppliers &  transportation & logistics providers. Technology for contactless & visibility.  procurement Building post-CoViD Supply Chain Resilience requires Supply Chain Management operations experience and understanding. Some miss this with an over emphasis on technology.  SCM manufacturers retailers
Building Supply Chain resilience & risk reduction requires knowing your upstream/inbound supply chain with its complexity & supply chains within supply chains. For mapping & more. Not optional. Manufacturers Retailers procurement pandemic

While not an Amazon or other acquisition story, it is a step to driverless--contactless--cars. Can it be turned into a Supply Chain #resilience vehicle. (pun intended)

 McKinsey. Post-pandemic. Trade. Transportation. Logistics. Commodity. Maritime. Mode.

 Check it out. Grocery Supply Chain Management. CoViD update. Dual inbound Supply Chains.
http://ltdmanagement.blogspot.com/2020/07/grocery-supply-chain-management-covid.html
China-Europe rail/intermodal grew as container lines laid up ships & blanked sailings. Belt And Road
https://eft.com/supply-chain/china-europe-rail-freight-47

 Amazon is looking at different technology--Dash Carts--for cashierless check-out for its grocery stores. This Customer Convenience MUST be backed with no Stock Outs. The challenge for all grocers is the dual inventory inbound Supply Chains that CoViD & e-commerce have shown need revised.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/amazon-rolls-out-shopping-carts-that-eliminate-checkout-lines.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

 Joe Biden will elevate Supply Chains to national importance and national security level for future crises.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/coronavirus-biden-plan-supply-chain-manufacturing/581205/

Ecommerce retail future? Micro-fulfillment. Good points. Order pick cost can may be higher & less efficient than warehouses. How does cost of robotics fit in? Stores may be more about space & use for online order fill than customer shopping? logistics

IMF project greater shrink to global economy. Now move this to manufacturers, retailers, their Supply Chains, trade and transportation & logistics providers. https://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-downgrades-already-glum-economic-outlook-due-to-coronavirus-crisis-11593003601?shareToken=st2aa659b993a84f2fa51aeacf1c8f2e63

Complicated issue. Pandemic & more. After years where BCOs & forwarders had their way with rates & are now upset with market power shift. But blank sailings were & are service failures & creates serious Supply Chain problems. Megaships contribute to blank sailings. What are shippers paying for?
https://theloadstar.com/carriers-get-benefit-of-the-doubt-on-charges-of-profiteering-from-the-crisis/ Amazon. Largest retailer on market value vs largest retailers. Dominating e-commerce with logistics & SupplyChain Management. Remember, Bank of America put their delivery service to be worth $230B by 2025. CoViD could make it worth more.
https://www-warehouseautomation-ca.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.warehouseautomation.ca/news-notes-1/2020/7/3/visualizing-the-size-of-amazon-the-worlds-most-valuable-retailer-2bsl5?format=amp

What will the second CoViD spike do to Supply Chains, transportation, logistics, trade, maritime? Is there a self-imposed lockdown ahead that impacts recovery? manufacture retailer Europe & North America ports deal with congestion from more containers unloaded, and CoVid test truckers and more to deal with.


Will cost pressure & Supply Chain / transportation post-pandemic reality make shippers do more DFM--Digital Freight Matching—along with contracts with shortened focus for rebuild & transition? Plus DFM position in digitization & blockchain.


Nothing like pandemic driven product choices to drive needed SKU rationalization & Supply Chain streamlining. Impact on CPG / FMCG manufacturers? Will this also happen with industrial manufacturing customers? Do not need as many choices? https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-american-consumer-has-fewer-choicesmaybe-for-good-11593230443 Is increasing inventory by manufacturers & retailers a viable pandemic Supply Chain resilience tactic? Or is it fools gold approach? Is it better to risk assess end-to-end & mitigate & then streamline? SCM risk is much more than insurance sees. CoViD buzzword for Supply Chain Management is resilience. Some ideas are tactics or talk technology. Most ignore logistics & transportation. If you cannot ship or move it, then what? Against reality of a global pandemic, need more on how to achieve it.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/post-pandemic-supply-chains-seek-resilience-report-says-11592917501?mod=e2twlx FedEx is back outsourcing to USPS for the Last Mile. I wonder how FedEx’s e-commerce surge delivery problems compare to UPS, USPS, and Amazon?
https://amp-freep-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.freep.com/amp/3263313001 How much of the Supply Chain report & its data findings reflect the pandemic?  And its resilience.


Increased Reshoring may be a change from the pandemic. Tradeoff of product cost vs resilience. Will customers pay higher prices? One of many Supply Chain questions ahead.

Which is the bigger issue--international sourcing or single sourcing for upstream Supply Chains? Speaking of pandemics & post-pandemics.  procurement  manufacturing  retail World Bank Sees 5.2% Decline in Global Economy. How does it play out in trade, maritime, freight, transportation, logistics, Supply Chains, manufacture, retail?
https://www-wsj-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/world-bank-sees-5-2-decline-in-global-economy-in-2020-from-coronavirus-11591631209

Retailers. CoViD. E-commerce. Warehouse space. Why is it just retailers? Is this about leaders or laggards?  Where are CPG / FMCG manufacturers? Where are industrial manufacturers?


Has CoViD shown the operating ruts of Supply Chains, transportation, logistics, 3PLs, ports? How many will take the post-pandemic opportunity to change & improve?  Redesign.

Trying to learn e-commerce order delivery & the Supply Chain that drives its success--during a pandemic.  It is harder than it seems.  https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-struggled-coronavirus-pandemic-smaller-rivals-thrive-market-11591798220?mod=djemlogistics_h

Retailers closing stores because of CoViD AND increased e-commerce. This shift also requires a Supply Chain shift. Store supply chain is different from online one. E-commerce customers are less tolerant of stockouts & failures at Order Delivery velocity.

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. It seems no one is happy when you read various stories. Those who need ships. Those who use it for floating inventory. Rate battles. Capacity. Maritime NVO forwarder BCO manufacturer retailer https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/rolled-trans-pacific-shipments-portend-sporadic-capacity-scarcity_20200608.html?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=content&utm_campaign=article Logistics hiring driven by e-commerce. And for the retailers & CPG / FMCG manufacturers who struggle with online sales & the Supply Chain that drives it success, what will you do to catch up?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/logistics-operators-targeting-e-commerce-boosted-hiring-in-may-11591381805?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=4

It took a pandemic to make needed changes in Supply Chain Management. Some are obvious & should have been done before. Others make SCM what it was meant to be. Many of the holdbacks were because of the C-suite.  manufacturers  retailers

It is nearly impossible to come through the pandemic without a new Supply Chain Management. Start with structure--process, organization, technology. Greater resilience. Less risk. And more. How does outsourcing play against the pandemic themes of increased resilience & reduced risk with an outside party's involvement for manufacturers & retailers? Keep or bring in-house? logistics transportation procurement 3PL
Supply Chain resilience is not about being agile. It is about being adaptable. Supply Chain Resilience may become the new buzz term and magic elixir after coronavirus is under control. How to be prepared for the next global crisis. Cheers. Stay Well.  The new buzz term—supply chain resilience. Great 40,000 foot high words. But no one really tells how to prepare for a global pandemic. Its upstream supply shocks. Its downstream demand shocks. Supply Chain Risk for manufacturers & retailers. Starts with transportation / logistics & Chain Of Custody. More than insurance assets. New risk is being left behind with post-pandemic new Supply Chain Management. Insurance talks Supply Chain Risk in terms of assets. CoViD has taught us that it is much more than that.  manufacturers  retailers  SCM Improved Supply Chain Resilience for the critical transportation & logistics, SCM means contactless solutions.
A takeaway from the pandemic for Supply Chain Management -- Anything is possible when you aren't the one doing the job. Supply Chain experts abound with no operations experience, especially end-to-end, on what must be done. ImageImageImage

Container lines.  NVOs. Forwarders. Credit terms. This issue seems to move as the need for their business moves. Will it hold pandemic & post-pandemic?


Maritime. CMA CGM has Q1 profit thanks to asset sales. Would be good to ignore business quarters & see March-May results. How does CEVA Logistics make $1.7B in revenue & lose $37Mil--in a transformation?
https://theloadstar.com/assets-sale-boosts-cma-cgm-in-q1-market-conditions-are-poor-but-profits-are-up/
Will post-pandemic Supply Chain Management be a battle between the new reality & the CFO? UPS peak surcharge. Is it also a sign of how much better it is doing than FedEx? Will it move Amazon & others to move more quickly to Last Mile alternatives? Retailers manufacturers e-commerce pandemic.
HP. Will spend more on supply chain/logistics. So it took a pandemic to open there eyes?! An attaboy or where have you been?  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-27/hp-reports-declining-revenue-on-supply-chain-disruptions Amazon. Another wake up call to laggard e-commerce retailers that lack the Supply Chain capabilities to compete vs Amazon.  And CPG / FMCG manufacturers that depend on these retailers? And malls that depend on these retailers?
Bank of America says Amazon delivery service is 4th largest in the US and will be worth $230B by 2025. Will that value reflect its e-commerce growth & mean they will pass FedEx in growth? Given pandemic surge will Amazon have a higher value by 2025? What happened to the great American logistics machine? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/business/logistics-supply-chains.html For Supply Chains & trade of manufacturers & retailers, for transportation & logistics firms are we at the end of the beginning with regards to the pandemic? Container lines could lose $23bil if they lose control of rates. That likely means bankruptcies for some? https://theloadstar.com/if-box-carriers-lose-control-of-rate-levels-then-shipping-losses-could-hit-23bn/ Trucking. How they see CoViD restart!? Chilling graph shows new truck trailer orders hit record low https://www.businessinsider.com/truck-trailer-orders-record-low-chilling-sign-economy-2020-5 'If Covid-19 fails to sink UK firms, a messy #Brexit could finish the job' https://theloadstar.com/if-covid-19-fails-to-sink-uk-firms-a-messy-brexit-could-finish-the-job/ Failure by Daimler to understand its Supply Chain, especially its complexity, nonlinearity, supply chains within supply chains, and the size of the upstream/inbound supply chain. A failure not unique to Daimler. https://theloadstar.com/out-of-step-covid-restrictions-disrupt-cross-border-auto-supply-chains/ Given the number of container ships laid up and the canceled sailings from Asia to Europe, a 15% second quarter reduction may be optimistic.  Plus given the UK's situation with CoViD.  Air freight is doing well, both as to volume and revenue, because of PPE/medical suppliers and those who need transport but are struggling with the container sailings service holes.  Freighters/all cargo airlines are doing well, and passenger airlines have converted passenger planes to handle cargo.  And air cargo rates are high.  All this has made rail from China to Europe an active option.  Part of the ongoing struggle to keep supply chains, especially the upstream/inbound, and trade going. https://www.ft.com/content/8403ddbc-9363-11ea-899a-f62a20d54625 Pre & Post-coronavirus lesson. Amazon brought outsourcing transportation & logistics in-house. CoViD showed need for operating integration between providers & manufacturers / retailers. Is need for new transport & logistics providers that include technology. 3PSCM SCMaaS
Inhousing/ Reverse Outsourcing logistics is a smart move. Increases Supply Chain control & speed, reduces costs, & builds resilience. Retailers & manufacturers who do not do in-house, should require new service providers--3PSCM or SCMaaS. https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-in-housing-air-cargo-prime-airlines-earnings-partners-2020-5 Retailers & CPG / FMCG #manufacturers. It is all about e-commerce. If you are weak with online, especially its required Supply Chain Management, get your act together. Much of the online surge will hold. https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-sales-surge-as-coronavirus-drives-americans-to-stockpile-11589888464 After reading, Rachel's great article above on Amazon, please go to my blog.  This in-house logistics supply chain resilience topic is in my latest blog at: http://ltdmanagement.blogspot.com/2020/05/wake-up-call-retailers-3pls.html
I am amazed at investors & others who do not understand what is happening with various transportation modes, distribution, warehousing, & logistics because of CoViD and business. Upstream. Downstream. And with Supply Chains. As Amazon returns its delivery speed for e-commerce, what does that do to the competition? Will it help them hold the volume surge from lockdown? Volume that was retail store. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-13/amazon-says-delivery-speed-returning-to-normal-after-covid-crush?sref=ZTlwf3Qc
Retail is dead. Long live retail. Time to design it around customers, not stores. And driven by Supply Chain Management, the ops arm of retail. A same, new SCM drove Amazon's e-commerce success that began the Retail Apocalypse. CoViD is speeding it up.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-finishes-the-retail-reckoning-that-amazon-started-11589459920
A sign of trade, Supply Chains, & transportation, & global economy, heading for record lay ups of ships. https://splash247.com/survey-suggests-shipping-is-heading-towards-record-lay-up-territory/ Now think in terms of restart—or rebuild— for Supply Chains and trade. Maersk Expects Container Shipping Volumes to Fall Up to 25% https://www.wsj.com/articles/maersk-expects-container-shipping-volumes-to-fall-up-to-25-11589388695 Also impact on upstream & downstream Supply Chains, transportation, & logistics. Factories Close for Good as Coronavirus Cuts Demand https://www.wsj.com/articles/factories-close-for-good-as-coronavirus-cuts-demand-11589122800 More that restarting the economy will be slow and awkward. YRC Seeks to Preserve Cash in Troubled Trucking Market. https://www.wsj.com/articles/yrc-seeks-to-preserve-cash-in-troubled-trucking-market-11589238197 Truckers. This story needs to be read by more than transportation, freight, logistics, and Supply Chain people. It is indicative of what must be done to restart--or maybe it is rebuild--companies and the economy post-pandemic. https://www.businessinsider.com/trucking-bloodbath-truck-drivers-lost-jobs-april-jobs-report-2020-5 Finding and reclaiming stalled import containers & cargo may be logistics and insurance nightmares. https://theloadstar.com/insurers-warn-of-the-risks-of-storing-import-containers-away-from-terminal-yards/ Hapag-Lloyd CEO says some of top 10 container lines may not survive the pandemic and its downturn. https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-shipping-lines-may-not-survive-downturn-hapag-lloyd-chief-says-11588612964?mod=djemlogistics_h
FedEx targeting SME e-commerce. Does this make sense? Complain of high costs of online deliveries & its multiple stops and then chasing small customers. And this means less volume per pickup. Am I missing something here in the logic?
https://theloadstar.com/fedex-appears-to-have-switched-focus-to-target-sme-e-commerce-shippers/
With the struggles of freight & logistics providers, when it comes time, restart will be difficult for manufacturer & retailer Supply Chains along their length. Heavy-Duty Truck Orders Plunge to Record Low https://www.wsj.com/articles/heavy-duty-truck-orders-plunge-to-record-low-11588703131 DSV Panalpina is laying off 3,000 employees across its forwarding, freight, transport, logistics business. How do you come back from that & all those offices?  Or do you? Amazon. Higher operating costs to keep logistics & e-commerce working.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/amazon-predicts-shrinking-profit-on-pandemic-expenses?srnd=premium&sref=aGTrSb9U&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social
Continue to be amazed by all the Supply Chain experts that have arisen since CoViD.

Manufacturers & retailers & Supply Chain Management, what should you do after coronavirus? Lessons learned? Changes?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/post-coronavirus-pandemic-supply-chain-management-what-tom-craig/

Container lines trying to match demand drop and capacity & sailing cuts. Rates are holding. Is there a wildcard here that will go rogue and cut rates to fill ships? HMM? Or?


Good article on ocean shipping/container lines. Update may have more drastic charts/stats. With governments having to subsidize/stimulus package so much, what monies are there for the carriers vs need? What about ports? Debts with the megaships? Risks of default & bankruptcies? Coronavirus.
https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/global-container-shipping-covid-19.pdf
What will be the post-pandemic outcome for Megas? What kind & how much unraveling will there be? Mega ships. Mega airlines.  Mega manufacturer & retailer corporations.  Mega Supply Chains. Mega transportation. Mega logistics. Small trucking companies struggling. More transportation / logistics strain and its impact on frayed end-to-end Supply Chains.  manufacturers  retailershttps://www.wsj.com/articles/for-americas-small-truckers-demand-is-falling-off-a-cliff-11587488511?mod=djemlogistics_h
Companies that ignored e-commerce and the stuggle to pivot & change their Supply Chains for DTC during a crisis. Lessons learned when the pandemic is controlled & cleared?
A lesson from the global pandemic is how many manufacturers & retailers with nominal views of Supply Chain Management are now finding that the tiger rides them. The US imports $2 trillion of goods--excluding oil.  It took decades of offshoring to get to this.  It will take decades to reshore/onshore/nearshore to change trade, Supply Chains, and logistics. The post coronavirus business discussion will be about deep pockets & Darwinism-- Retail Darwinism, Supply Chain Darwinism, Transport Darwinism. How much of the lessons of the crisis will be retained & implemented? How much ignored & forgotten?

 Clash of 2 supply chains: export/upstream & import/downstream. Supply shock & demand shock. Asset heavy ports & ocean carriers caught in the middle. Elevated trade lane imbalances. Restart/reset will not be an overnight fix.



Supply chains are being broken. Containers are empty here and yet not available there. International commerce is grinding to a halt.

Clothing retailers struggling with unsold apparel. And not being supplied as normal as seasons change. Rock and a hard place.  Upstream Supply Chain Downstream


Not just the UK. Coronavirus. Imports filling ports and warehouses. Clearing all these will delay restarts. UK could run out of warehouse space in two weeks as imports pile up.
https://theloadstar.com/uk-could-run-out-of-warehouse-space-in-two-weeks-as-imports-pile-up/

Legal question. How long do containers & other cargo have to sit at ports before they are considered abandoned? Thinking of importers using ports for storage at this time. A thought on clearing port congestion--an important need once global trade restarts.

There are 3 Supply Chains--product, finance, and information. This is finance.


To lighten the moment. You can tell the bad buying decisions by retailers & grocers (and that take up critical space in warehouses) when they don't even sell during a pandemic.

Will have significant impact on end-to-end logistics for trade & Supply Chains. WTO predicts world trade could fall by up to 32%
https://splash247.com/wto-predicts-world-trade-could-fall-by-up-to-32/

Coronavirus: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52236936

A lesson from the pandemic, the future of retail must be built on and around end-to-end Supply Chain Management. Looks like real estate folks are seeing the surge in e-commerce from staying home. And are looking for it to hold post-coronavirus Supply Chain Management. Knock on future retail & stores? More coming from CPG/FMCG DTC? And from other manufacturers/industries?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/real-estate-firms-expect-coronavirus-driven-shifts-will-spur-warehouse-demand-11586806285

Container line bankruptcy potential spreads in step with the coronavirus. And how much it would impact trade & Supply Chains. Serious issue for manufacturers & retailers.
https://splash247.com/liner-bankruptcy-potential-spreads-in-step-with-the-coronavirus/?
Post-coronavirus business & Supply Chains may likely deal with a three-prong hit: recession, altered spending, and contracted spending by consumers and businesses. The question is for how long? There is much discussion that social distancing will continue in 2021 and maybe 2022. What will that do to retail, grocery, CPG/FMCG manufacturers & their Supply Chains as to restart/reset/rebuild?

Coronavirus & retail--where does it go? e-commerce growth. One gap in article is strong understanding of Supply Chain Management, its complexity & nonlinearity, Supply Chains within supply chains, & upstream where the supply of supply chains begins. What will be post CoViD SCM!?https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3077506/will-coronavirus-shock-push-retail-sector-us-and-britain-adopt

Concern on post-coronavirus supply chain management.

Coronavirus. Pressure & attention is on the upstream Supply Chain. One that is least understood; has supply chain complexity, nonlinearity, & with supply chains within supply chains; &  is measured by costs & is bifurcated.  trade 'Storage in transit' products expand to head off looming box congestion crisis. Or spreading it to more ports? Are shippers putting onus on container lines & ports for their problems? https://theloadstar.com/storage-in-transit-products-expand-to-head-off-looming-box-congestion-crisis/ Inverse importance. Logistics & Supply Chain Management. During coronavirus. Will recognition continue after crisis? Or revert to old ways where less critical functions get attention? SCM exec as CEO? Less pressure on forcing lower logistics/transport cost & prices?
Amazon's total surge in employees shows volumes are beyond Christmas type. Now adding back "nonessentials". That means adding more warehouses for space or moving products/inventory faster thru the present network. And the Last Mile.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-seeks-to-hire-another-75-000-workers-11586789365
How well are ERP systems handling the coronavirus chaos with its supply shock, demand shock, frayed Supply Chains, and struggling underlying logistics? Manufacturers  Retailers With its buying power, retail has de facto control of what CPG/FMCG manufacturers do. In the post coronavirus retail &  e-commerce, will this change? Will manufacturers take more control of their businesses & future? Sell e-commerce? With the surge in e-commerce & the health struggles of UPS, FedEx, & Amazon employees, USPS is needed--both for its ongoing Last Mile & as additional capacity as competitors struggle. https://www.wsj.com/articles/postal-service-warns-of-22-billion-hole-from-coronavirus-11586463104
Truckers dealing with coronavirus and the drop in business. How long this goes on, how deep the pockets, how little debt. Even with higher variable costs than some transport modes....

'Storage in transit' products expand to head off looming box congestion crisis. Or spreading it to more ports? Are shippers putting onus on container lines & ports for their problems? https://theloadstar.com/storage-in-transit-products-expand-to-head-off-looming-box-congestion-crisis/ Coronavirus Pandemic Widens Divide Between Online, Traditional Businesses. Retail Armageddon. e-commerce. Requires robust Supply Chain Management. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-pandemic-widens-divide-between-online-traditional-businesses-11585733402 Coronavirus: 'Drop in global trade to be worse than 2008 crisis' https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52211919 Inactive boxship fleet to surpass 3m teu for the first time https://splash247.com/inactive-boxship-fleet-to-surpass-3m-teu-for-the-first-time/ Container lines $23.4bn combined full year losses. Who survives? Potential big impact on global trade & Supply Chains. https://splash247.com/liners-brace-for-worst-case-scenario-23-4bn-combined-full-year-losses/

Reducing container line capacity. Fewer ships active. Another sign of what is happening to global trade and supply chains. From Splash.

Container line chaos. Underneath voided sailings & laid up ships--using Sec 19 of ocean bill of lading--suspend & abandon carriage of goods. Ports congestion. Domino to domestic transport impact. Points behind $23bil in losses & 3 million TEUs laid up. More?! trade Supply Chains Asia-Europe logistics, trade & Supply Chains. Obvious choice with cancelled services & blank sailings by container lines. Belt And Road. How much will stay with the overland when the crisis recedes?

Void container line sailings is not just an Asia-Europe or transpacific thing. Check trade lanes such as Gulf East Med and Indian Ocean. Global pandemic with global trade, Supply Chains, & transportation / logistics impacts. More fraying of upstream Supply Chains.  Coronavirus lockdowns across Asia breaking links in supply chains. https://theloadstar.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-across-asia-breaking-links-in-supply-chains/ Congestion looms at US ports. More clash of supply chains. Upstream vs downstream. Supply shock & demand shock. Coronavirus. Recession. How to deal with. And the who of restart/reset. Is there a point where congestion fails & supply chains collapse? SOT. Suspension Of Transit by MSC. Will it be done by other carriers? Litigious potential with liabilities & costs. Void bill of lading as transport contract? If carrier doing this goes out of business? Options given port congestions & buyers not knowing what to do? Container Line Darwinism. Coronavirus Pushes Shipping Companies Into Survival Mode. Even Maersk. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-pushes-shipping-companies-into-survival-mode-11585819800 MSC. SOT Suspension of Transit. Place containers from Asia at transshipment ports. Mitigate congestion at destination ports & importers unable to pay. Transfer  congestion. A sign of de facto collapse of trade & Supply Chains? Next? https://splash247.com/msc-introduces-new-flexible-cargo-service-as-asia-demand-bounces-back/ Coronavirus. Shippers shocked by scale and speed of blanked sailing announcements.


Freight Forwarders dealing with clashing Supply Chains of inbound & outbound--& its congestion.


E-commerce is a bright spot for many businesses during this pandemic, especially retail. Notice how there are no complaints about Last Mile. With its buying power, retail has de facto control of what CPG/FMCG manufacturers do. In the post coronavirus retail &  e-commerce, will this change? Will manufacturers take more control of their businesses & future? Sell e-commerce?

Coronavirus Economic Impact: IMF Says Global Recession Is Underway, Worse Than 2009

May the critical thin red line of logistics, transportation, Supply Chains, and trade be able to stand through the battle of coronavirus.

Depending when the CoViD curve begins to flatten, there could be lasting changes to retailers & manufacturers. From the organizational role & standing of Supply Chain Management to the retail of stores and/or e-commerce to redesign of Supply Chains.

Do current talks of retail transformation miss 2 points? Retail Darwinism with coronavirus & recession? Supply Chain Management/logistics are more than strategic; they are critical. Will retailers/etailers & CPG/FMCG manufacturers with weak SCM face Supply Chain Darwinism?

 With coronavirus and a recession, it is likely that discretionary spending will be very limited and focused on what is important. For retailers & others where spending will be done, have a strong supply chain to drive your e-commerce.

 Coronavirus is proving the critical importance of supply chain management and logistics. Upstream & downstream. Retailers/etailers with strong SCM will lead. Those who have failed to invest in SCM may struggle to survive—the out of stock, settle for substitution.

 Now #1 with coronavirus. With the critical importance of logistics, transportation, & supply chains, a coordinated approach. Such as with Defense Logistics Agency.

 Read McKinsey & Company's excellent paper-- COVID-19 Implications for Business at my blog:  http://ltdmanagement.blogspot.com/2020/03/mckinsey-covid-19-implications-for.html

What is happening now with Supply Chains goes beyond Bull Whip effect. Two supply chains clashing--supply shock meets demand shock. Coronavirus. Retail. Manufacturing.

 The Coronavirus Is Quietly Killing the Real Estate Industry. Read the story from The National Interest. Click on this link to reach the PDF: https://www.linkedin.com/dms/C5606AQGhSE5PHwyN2A/messaging-attachmentFile/0?m=AQIXli0gmyGvTgAAAXEjG7ichLtyaYNp-mf_2B9fyB0vOIn-jbSLJYA&ne=1&v=beta&t=wCAEz0YN7UO0PpJvb0MQV--yxwScx8l3SWaLmlXsW4w#I6649284546971992064_500

Coronavirus Is a Wake-Up Call for Supply Chain Management. Upstream. Supply Chain Mapping. Risk Mitigation. Manufacturers. Retailers. SCM.


What are the backup plans in the medical & food Supply Chains if workers in end-to-end logistics/transport--warehouses, trucking, ports, etc.--get coronavirus and there are shutdowns at such operations? Serious war room stuff. 
Two Supply Chain challenges. Dealing with & getting through coronavirus & the recession. At the same time, planning what happens after manufacturers & retailers are through it.  The changes. New designs. New realities.
Coronavirus & Supply Chain strain. The non-linear, complex supply chain & its supply chains within the supply chains--supply chain linkages--are the straining point in dealing with what is happening. Within your industry/niche, watch for breaks in supply chains.

Dealing with--managing may be optimistic--coronavirus by manufacturers and retailers requires and will require savvy, experienced Supply Chain operations people. This is a constantly changing & evolving situation.


CoVidD defining retail's future. Product categories & e-commerce. Force those in denial to wake up including CPG/FMCG manufacturers. CoViD is validating how important Supply Chain Management is PERIOD. Transformation is not about retail; it is about SCM.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-crisis-reveals-retail-haves-and-have-nots-11585047603?mod=djemlogistics_h

Ross Stores Cancels Merchandise Orders Until June Due to Coronavirus. Makes sense with uncertainties. But it could delay recovery restart. Upstream is where the supply of Supply Chain begins.
https://footwearnews.com/2020/business/retail/ross-stores-cancels-merchandise-orders-coronavirus-1202955235/

Manufacturers & retailers who are winners & survivors of coronavirus will be defined by their Supply Chains. They have had them and their structure in place.Coronavirus could shut down USPS. It would have a big impact on e-commerce Last Mile.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-usps-shutdown-chaos-amazon-2020-3


Coronavirus could shut down USPS. It would have a big impact on e-commerce Last Mile.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-usps-shutdown-chaos-amazon-2020-3

Coronavirus.  First DHL. Now Ceva Logistics declares Force Majeure.



Coronavirus. Panama Canal takes measures to ensure waterway remains open.
https://splash247.com/panama-canal-takes-measures-to-ensure-waterway-remains-open/

Coronavirus Upends Trucking Networks, With Heavy One-Way Flows. Shippers should appreciate the service and not complain about rates. Those days are on hold.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-upends-trucking-networks-with-heavy-one-way-flows-11585173693

Coronavirus social distancing shift--Amazon seems to be the one stepping up to handle the surge. They have the logistics infrastructure & Supply Chain capabilities. What other retailers are stepping up--US? Canada? Europe? In the areas where the virus is strongest.

Hoarding pressure on supply chains.


Those supply chain experts on toilet paper shortages fail to understand that problems will grow as the coronavirus cases grow. Panic buying is exacerbated by the panic to the crisis. Demand draw exceeded supply restock speed.

Will coronavirus expedite the use of drones for e-commerce Last Mile?Will the coronavirus crisis escalate Amazon's bringing more end-to-end logistics inhouse--Reverse Outsourcing--in house & build its own capabilities? US? Europe? And? 

Force majeure: getting it wrong can be a very expensive business. Logistics. Transport. Trade. Supply Chains. Coronavirus.
https://theloadstar.com/force-majeure-getting-it-wrong-can-be-a-very-expensive-business/

What are overleveraged/debt heavy transport/logistics providers going to do? Then the next question, what does this question do to manufacturer & retailer Supply Chains dealing with coronavirus & recession? No simple answers ahead. 

DHL Global Forwarding declares force majeure. Surprised it took this long. Expect others to do it. Coronavirus.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/dhl-global-forwarding-force-majeure-services-covid/574565/

Maersk ditches full year earnings guidance citing coronavirus. Now imagine transport/logistics providers who are not as well financed.
https://splash247.com/maersk-ditches-full-year-earnings-guidance-citing-coronavirus-and-a-lack-of-visibility-in-box-demand/

How good is a Click And Collect e-commerce strategy in a time of coronavirus social distancing?

There may be a Darwinian inference here for retail.  Especially with the coronavirus impact lasting as long as 18 months, per a Federal study.  The recession this will cause could move toward depression. Add in social distancing.  Who will spend? What will they buy?  How will they buy it--what channel?  And more and bigger questions could evolve the longer it goes on.  E-commerce is now viewed as a "safe" way to buy.  And as the virus continues and peaks, this is likely to continue.  This, in turn, could force greater speed to deliver orders.  And that is about supply chains and the logistics infrastructure of them.  As with retail, transport/logistics will go through its own survival of the fittest--which in turn, will impact online supply chains. If the present retail market shares are indicative of what could happen, it may become winners, survivors, and remember them.  What we may be watching is not a case study, it would be much bigger.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevendennis/2020/03/17/the-coronavirus-will-accelerate-retails-collapse-of-the-middle/#115da40619f8

How about--initiated by the container lines or by regulatory bodies--a waiver of detention/demurrage of containers because of the stop/start & container positioning from coronavirus. And from what I anticipate, more stop/start/slowdowns as CoViD hits Europe & North America?

The longer coronavirus continues, the more crush there will be on Supply Chains, & the more survival pressure on logistics/transport survival--which increases the problems of Supply Chains constantly trying to adapt to ongoing changes.Dealing with--managing may be optimistic--coronavirus by manufacturers and retailers requires and will require savvy, experienced Supply Chain operations people. This is a constantly changing & evolving situation.  


Backup. Backlog. Congestion. Now this for Supply Chains that can delay product/inventory shipments with these additional vessel delays in China. 

https://splash247.com/supply-chains-face-another-headache-as-china-starts-14-day-quarantine-for-ships-and-personnel-coming-from-worst-hit-coranavirus-countries/

Amazon is dealing with two whammies right now. The panic buying & how it moved online as stores struggle to catch up with the hoarders. AND, the coronavirus social distancing that is shifting store business online. Amazon may be the bigger winner there. When all this is over....
https://slate.com/culture/2020/03/amazon-book-delivery-delays-coronavirus.html

Amazon delays delivery of books and other nonessentials in response to the coronavirus. Segments products to get positioned for surge in orders that used to be retail.Retailers & manufacturers have a dual challenge right now. Dealing with the Supply Chain impact of coronavirus. Planning for their new business model & new supply chain to drive it. Business will change. Plus design & implement new supply chain that mitigates some risk.

With retail stores closing, add backing up Supply Chains for CPG/FMCG manufacturers and suppliers. Facing incredible supply chain congestion and confusion. More pressure on logistics/transport providers.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the sharpest drop on record for an index of manufacturing business conditions there and a measure of new orders turned negative. Add this manufacturing index drop to retail store closings with coronavirus. There is a coming crunch in Supply Chains with what is inbound while buying access reduces. What happens with the incoming inventory? Import supply chains starting up & shutting down??? 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-factories-work-around-coronavirus-impact-11584447707

Coronavirus. The upstream logistics & Supply Chain plans & issues with being able to export products is going to next meet the downstream plans & issues of being able to import and move products to intended destinations. Manufacturers. Retailers. More of the best laid plans....

FedEx. Trying to understand. Coronavirus is shifting much retail to e-commerce. So why are they doing this? Are they conceding Last Mile to UPS?https://www.wsj.com/articles/fedex-withdraws-fiscal-year-guidance-due-to-coronavirus-11584477842

Looking at the time line of coronavirus in Asia and now Europe, the US & Canada may be looking at 8 weeks, or more, to go through the CoViD cycle. How would end-to-end Supply Chains & logistics/transport deal with that volume not flowing thru? 

Logistics/transport providers, especially asset heavy, are facing CoViD-19 chaos throughout the end-to-end Supply Chain. How many will still be in business in 3 months? And then what? Think airlines & fewer planes. What happens to the lost belly freight space? And what about?

Amazon is trying to hire 100,000 people to deal with a surge of orders. How much of this volume will stay with them when CoViD is under control? How much of surge e-commerce business will other retailers get? Do they have a New Supply Chain to handle it as customers will expect? 


Big picture. Medical supplies. Tariffs. Coronavirus. Global trade. Logistics/transport capacity issues across multiple trade lanes. Dual of demand shock and supply shock. All crush supply chains in a time of urgency. Need leadership.  Coronavirus. Add to this the China factories that make drugs and pharmaceutical ingredients. More pressure on Supply Chains. More need for leadership. 
Hoarding/panic buying. The sequence is go to stores. If they are out of stock, go online. If they are out of stock, repeat sequences until purchase is achieved. There are two parts to what is happening.  One, hoarding/panic buying  that is drawing down supplies faster than they can be replenished.  The supply is there and being manufactured.  It is getting delivered to keep up with the panickers. Second, and perhaps more important, is that crowd avoidance/social distancing will shift business from stores to online sites. How much of that business will come back to stores and how much will remain in e-commerce? And the longer that customers avoid stores, does that influence how much stays online?  
Another comment, if you look at the e-commerce sales buyers--and their sales percents--a very few retailers own the market.  Will the online go to the firms with robust supply chains to satisfactorily service customers?  If so, what does all this mean to store retailers and weak e-commerce providers?  Will the gap between leaders and laggards become too great?  Will there be a tipping point? Is coronavirus speeding up the shift to e-commerce?  Will it change retail apocalypse to retail Armageddon?  Many retailers and CPG/FMCG manufacturers have wasted the past few years with non-robust business and supply chain transformations.  Has the virus closed their windows of opportunity?

Hoarding / Panic Buying is a special pressure on Supply Chains. Supply cannot keep up with demand chaos. The supply exists and is being manufactured. But it cannot move as quickly as panickers are taking it off shelves.  The Supply Chain challenge with coronavirus is upstream—which also happens to be the segment that has bifurcation as to logistics & procurement and is the most complex—nonlinear & supply chains within supply chains.  Is all this a perfect Supply Chain Management storm? Will coronavirus cause an over reaction to Supply Chains by manufacturers & retailers--that can cause continued chaos? Changes are needed--and have been needed. This can stimulate SCM corrections. How will firms then play it?
From a business perspective, coronavirus is about logistics/transport & the inventory restock/stock of Supply Chains. Interesting. Another proof of why SCM is strategic.  Manufacturers. Retailers. Global trade. Import. Export. The president's ban on Europe air travel. That loss of belly freight capacity to supply chain bottlenecks & air freight from Asia via Europe as an option. In the land of what-if, what if Belt and Road benefited from all this impact on global trade, logistics, and Supply Chains?

Coronavirus vs trade war tariffs. Demand shock & supply shock.  Need trade policy relief as logistics & Supply Chains of manufacturers & retailers deal with all of it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-grants-tariff-exemptions-for-more-medical-goods-from-china-11584125840


Transatlantic air freight rates to soar. Cut air freight capacity/supply while demand increases. Remember, Asia to Europe to the US to move products/inventory/cargo. Both all air and sea-air options.


As coronavirus moves, the Supply Chain/logistics problems expand to include import countries dealing with the virus & with potential problems from it & handling the surge of incoming containers & air freight. Supply chains within supply Chains. Risks at bifurcated upstream. Complex, non linear SCM. Coronavirus-Closed Factories in China Face Delays in Restarting as Authorities Flip-Flop. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-closed-factories-in-china-face-delays-in-restarting-as-authorities-flip-flop-11583923466
U.S. regulators are suspending rules that limit daily driving hours for truck drivers moving emergency supplies in response to the coronavirus. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-suspends-truck-driving-limits-to-speed-coronavirus-shipments-11584200091 Coronavirus and social distancing. Just what retail stores and malls do not need. A benefit for e-commerce & food delivery? How much of it would it revert to stores? And what do online laggards with weak Supply Chains do?Supply Chains & demand. The reality that supply chains are non-linear, supply chains within supply chains, & complex. Coronavirus Confronts Global Economy With Tough Recovery. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-confronts-global-economy-with-long-road-to-recovery-11583855225
Allianz economist on impact of coronavirus. Compares to China trade war. A collapse trend on trade, logistics, & Supply Chains. This will ripple to logistics/transport across the end-to-end Supply Chain.

The UN said March 9 that coronavirus outbreak could cost the global economy up to $2 trillion this year.
Coronavirus. On February 23, $1 trillion. Manufacturing, retail, & Supply Chains. And factor in the impact on logistics/transport. The economic impact is beyond significant. And growing. Output. Layoffs. Out of stocks. Threatens global Supply Chains. An understatement. It has the potential for avalanche impact. It roils across industries. Including end-to-end logistics that support end-to-end supply chains for manufacturers & retailers.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-economy-shudders-as-coronavirus-threatens-global-supply-chains-11582474608?mod=e2tw
Container Lines warned to brace for 17m teu drop in volumes this year. Coronavirus and its residual trade effect. https://splash247.com/liners-warned-to-brace-for-17m-teu-drop-in-volumes-this-year/

Yet more devil in the details about global trade, logistics, & Supply Chains.

Coronavirus virus. Supply Chain restart needs both best of centralized and decentralized, that includes origin based. All the end-to-end logistics details demand it.
Curbed by Coronavirus, China’s Truckers. Devil in the details of logistics of Supply Chain Management that non-SCM investors, manufacturers, & retailers do not understand. https://www.wsj.com/articles/curbed-by-coronavirus-chinas-truckers-cant-wait-to-get-on-the-road-again-11583315215 More devil in the details. So important for global trade & Supply Chain Management for manufacturers & retailers. MSC is sending a 19,000-TEU container ship to the LA-LB #ports to pick up empty #shipping containers for return to Asia in anticipation of a spike in demand as China's factories continue to come back online.







As Chinese Supply Chains start to move again, slowly, new end to end logistics/transport bottlenecks appear. https://theloadstar.com/as-chinese-supply-chains-start-to-move-again-slowly-bottlenecks-appear/ Trade war. Tariffs. Coronavirus. Carriers set to cut Asia-USWC capacity in response to weakening outlook. https://theloadstar.com/carriers-set-to-cut-asia-uswc-capacity-in-response-to-weakening-outlook/ International Chamber of Shipping issues new coronavirus guidance.
https://splash247.com/international-chamber-of-shipping-issues-new-coronavirus-guidance/ The broad business impact of coronavirus is obvious. Greatest risk is to the weak. Manufacturers & retailers with weak Supply Chains. Weak logistics/transport/3PL firms as to capabilities & financials. Harvard Business Review sees it correctly. Coronavirus is about Supply Chains & logistics/transport. How Coronavirus Could Impact the Global Supply Chain by Mid-March. https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-coronavirus-could-impact-the-global-supply-chain-by-mid-march?utm_campaign=Feed%3A+harvardbusiness+%28HBR.org%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner And a quicker shift to e-commerce for those with strong Supply Chains, aka, the few leaders. And the laggards? If Coronavirus Takes Hold In America, It Will Be More Than A Retail Apocalypse, But An Armageddon. https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2020/03/01/if-coronavirus-takes-hold-in-america-it-will-be-more-than-a-retail-apocalypse-but-an-armageddon/ How about a short list? What industry and their Supply Chains are not affected by coronavirus & China & global?
Another story on coronavirus and Supply Chains. It is obvious that Supply Chain Management is the more important company activity. So why aren't CEOs coming in with SCM bona fides?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-manufacturing-idUSKBN20P29T?taid=5e5da8b19097de0001139995&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_s
Coronavirus and inventory/product shortages at Best Buy. Expect more stories going forward on shortages and out of stocks in Supply Chains.  And all those products not being transported.  Idled ships.  And more. Retail. Manufacturing.http://www.startribune.com/best-buy-predicts-short-term-impact-from-coronavirus-reports-solid-holiday-sales/568240952/
When the coronavirus problem is resolved, estimates to restart manufacturing, get ships back in operation, backlog at ports, drayage, containers, vessel queues, plus similar at delivery & customs—end to end inventory Supply Chain & logistics/transport recovery—3 months?!?!?! And the differences between large corporations/MNCs and SMEs to get back up to speed!
When the coronavirus backlog starts to break, do you think those getting on ships & planes will be the cheap logistics/transport price buying BCOs & OTIs?  Any expectation as to the wailing and gnashing of teeth over what the freight prices will be? $2 billion and counting. A sign of the logistics costs of coronavirus. And this is just one transport/logistics segment of the end-to-end Supply Chain.
https://theloadstar.com/box-carriers-bill-for-volumes-lost-to-coronavirus-nearing-2bn/
Coronavirus. Idling container ships in multiple trade lanes. Global. Restarting logistics/transport will be a factor in restarting Supply Chains.
https://theloadstar.com/historic-capacity-crunch-looms-as-more-europe-asia-sailings-are-blanked/

Coronavirus. If it continues for long period. Possible retail store Armageddon. Positive impact then to those with strong e-commerce. And the domino effect on malls. And on CPG/FMCG manufacturers then. Much on the line. Coronavirus. The impact if this continues.


Coronavirus. Supply Chains of 94% of Fortune 1000 are having disruptions.
https://fortune.com/2020/02/21/fortune-1000-coronavirus-china-supply-chain-impact/

 Coronavirus. Do these investors understand manufacturing? And global trade? And logistics/transport & Supply Chains, both export & import? Transport/logistics financials to date? And backlog & queue & what it means?

Another example of the coronavirus impact on logistics/transport. And extrapolate in terms of size of Supply Chains. Ripples from coronavirus hit DP-DHL profits for €60m this month.
https://theloadstar.com/ripples-from-coronavirus-hit-dp-dhl-group-for-e60m-this-month/

 The logistics/transport impact keeps growing. And the products / Supply Chains being impacted.  Coronavirus. Container lines have pulled 1.67m teu of capacity out of China, costing $1.5bn
https://theloadstar.com/carriers-have-pulled-1-67m-teu-of-capacity-out-of-china-costing-1-5bn/
Then imagine what this means to container lines? The idled ships.  Trade lanes.  Feeders.  Mega Ships. Mega carriers.  Coronavirus. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-slashing-trade-lowering-outlook-ups-fdx-ubs-2020-2 Coronavirus. One more transport issue. Record numbers of blanked sailings lead to severe container equipment imbalance. https://splash247.com/record-numbers-of-blanked-sailings-lead-to-severe-container-equipment-imbalance/
Coronavirus impacting domestic/US freight. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-impact-seen-prolonging-u-s-freight-slump-11582832476 IMO 2020 impact. Add coronavirus. Could there be a financial blood bath for ocean carriers in 2020? Bankruptcies? M&A? Fewer carriers? Rate impact then for BCOs & OTIs?
https://theloadstar.com/ocean-carriers-unlikely-to-recover-the-full-cost-of-imo-2020-compliance/
Coronavirus spurs China Shipowners Association to seek lifting of the sulphur cap.https://splash247.com/coronavirus-spurs-china-shipowners-association-to-seek-lifting-of-the-sulphur-cap/ Scrubber delays. Coronavirus. IMO 2020. What a year for ocean shipping. And we are not through the first quarter.


Coronavirus and smaller ocean carriers. Not good there either.

The move to China did not happen overnight. It took decades. The driver was lower cost products. And the lower prices it meant to customers. Everyone seems to want locally sourced jobs but do not want to pay the prices that local means as to labor rates.  Against, that background, what is the answer? And moving all that production will take years. Supply Chain Risk. China. Coronavirus. What is next? Is it possible to file for force majeure? At this potential scale? Global trade, logistics/transport, & Supply Chains for manufacturers & retailers?


Are we close to a de facto business embargo of China & its production? Coronavirus.

In face of the coronavirus, how do you define trade? What is the derivative value of logistics/transport? And Supply Chains for manufacturers & retailers?

Coronavirus continues. Inventory drains at retailers & manufacturers. Recovery time & its production & end-to-end logistics chaos. What happens as firms run out of inventory--finished goods/products, raw materials, components, assemblies, etc.?

Is it too late to head off Supply Chain risks? What is happening inside the coronavirus war rooms of manufacturers & retailers for their supply chains?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/commentary-supply-chain-risks-from-the-coronavirus-demand-immediate-action-11582054704  


Coronavirus. China. Supply Chains. Former Macy's CEO.  The gift of hindsight/Monday morning quarterback. Shift of manufacturing away from the US took decades driven by demand for cheaper prices. And when he was CEO, what did he do differently? Just asking.

Coronavirus. Now Germany. Both as to the country and trade partners & Supply Chains.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-companies-brace-for-big-blow-from-coronavirus-11582718401?mod=e2twe

Supply Chains dominate. The coronavirus has put the world's economy in survival mode.
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/the-coronavirus-has-put-the-worlds-economy-in-survival-mode

Coronavirus. Now South Korea. As manufacturing may be curtailed here also. More impact on global trade, logistics/transport, inventory stock/restock #SupplyChains for manufacturers & retailers. 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/koreas-coronavirus-spread-puts-an-export-hub-at-risk-11582537118

Domino effect. Vietnam reports Supply Chain issues from coronavirus.

Given coronavirus impact, ocean carriers have little room with the IMO 2020 BAF battle. Without dramatic financial impact.

Coronavirus supply chain headaches spread as more than one in two Asia – North Europe sailings are cancelled

https://splash247.com/coronavirus-supply-chain-headaches-spread-as-more-than-one-in-two-asia-north-europe-sailings-are-cancelled/

 Think container shipping demand trend. Coronavirus. Given capital costs, especially with mega ships, how long until they pass into the ugly zone--red ink? Copious amounts. Then what?


This is just for container shipping. Take it end-to-end on a hint of the coronavirus global impact on trade, logistics, transport, & Supply Chains. Manufacturers. Retailers. Risk.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-shipping-nears-a-standstill-amid-coronavirus-disruption-11581699854?mod=djemlogistics_h  

More coronavirus. This time on China side & not being able to move reefers/perishables inland. A hint of what will happen when the crisis breaks & production restarts. A mess with dray, ports, vessel queues, & getting on ships.  And a similar congestion at delivery ports. All extending the likely lack of manufacturer & retailer Supply Chain inventory.

 Citing coronavirus, ONE and CMA CGM institute reefer congestion surcharges.
Making masks to fight coronavirus. Comes down to logistics/customs & Supply Chains.


 Right now, April is a good guess on what coronavirus gets trade, logistics, & Supply Chains back on the path to normal on both sides, there could be stories about manufacturers & retailers out of products/inventory. And all those efforts to ship tons & tons of products out on planes.

 When the coronavirus crisis is cured, imagine the chaos at China ports with ships lining up to be loaded. Truckers bringing in containers. Ports dealing with containers. Now flip it to ports in the US, Europe, & elsewhere with queue to unload ships, port chaos, chasses, & dray.

 What is going on in the shipper war rooms--I assume manufacturers & retailers have them by now--to deal with this on their Supply Chains?

 Canceling the Hong Kong Sevens. Coronavirus concerns are very apparent here.

 Coronavirus. Not just China. Shows Supply Chain complexity & its non-linearity. And how there are no simple answers to resolving it & Supply Chain Risk mitigation challenge. Risk. Manufacturer. Retailer.

 Global Supply Chains &. Dealing with trade wars, forward buying, & the excess inventory it creates. Dealing with coronavirus, no products being made & shipped & the draining of & lack of inventory it creates. Shows why Supply Chain Management should dominate the C-suite.

 Compounding Supply Chain disruptions for manufacturers & retailers, from E-commerce to coronavirus, is the lack of SCM strategy. Such firms operate supply chains at the tactical, even reactionary, level. A self-made risk.

 An indicator of what it is difficult to Supply Chain Risk mitigate with coronavirus in China. The #1 export country. China's export volume is so large to disperse efficiently. A long term solution issue. Statista chart.
Container line lost revenue means containers of products not shipping. How long can manufacturer & retailer #SupplyChains endure? And the impact on their end-user customers? The halt on trade, blockchain, and more.

 Coronavirus costing liners up to $350m in lost revenues every week.





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