COVID-19 VACCINE—A SUPPLY CHAIN OPERATIONS PLAN

 

A vaccine for CoViD is getting much attention.  There are several firms in different countries working on it.  Now there are articles on a macro view of the number of planes needed to transport and the required temperatures for a vaccine. These and other articles are interesting with their high-level view. 

But they are not actionable.  What is needed is an end-to-end (E2E) global supply chain operation plan to distribute the vaccine across the world.  This is complex in what must be done, the geographic scope, product requirements, and the time pressure to do it.

With a world population of 7.8 billion and possibly 2 doses per person, this is a huge undertaking to move it around the globe.  Upfront, the availability of potential transportation and storage resources seems insufficient.  That adds to the challenge and need for a plan—to be ahead of the game and to minimize as many problems—and there will be problems.

Presented here is a plan, rough perhaps, with many unknowns at this time.  It is a working document that can be updated as more details/information arises as to product requirements, production location or locations; country demand; transportation, storage, and logistics resources; and other specifics evolve. Please note, the names of any transportation, warehouse, or logistics firms will not be mentioned. This is about the plan. Names will arise with the design and implementation.

A very important point.  This project defines VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. The standard approaches will not work.  Change will be a dynamic constant to the point it could be considered organized chaos.

Again, 7.8 billion people in 100+ countries, possibly 2 doses each, a potential vaccine that requires temperature protection at below freezing temperatures or face vaccine degradation. Protecting the vaccine from manufacturing through to injection is the underlying concern with the project and will require more than transportation and storage.  VUCA. A project that defines challenge.

·       Prepare a list of contacts at receiving countries who will coordinate, both medical and supply chain. Collaboration is important for such an end-to-end undertaking.

·       Err on the side of caution with developing and implementing the plan.

·       Start with vaccine raw materials/ingredients (active and inactive)—where sourced, production rates and quantities, how to ship, what is required for handling & storage, including space.  Do not forget vials and/or ampules, caps, labels, and packaging.

·       Understand production batch/lot sizes and production rate, including any as to language for labels.

·       Establish a plan that covers the entire timeline--from launch period through to expected production to satisfy worldwide needs. 

·       Know the product distribution plan—ship how many to where and the sequencing/prioritization.  That is a starting point.  With this is recognizing how to pack the shipment to maintain temperature.

·       Measure time from door-to-door for each origin-destination.  This is critical for product temperature protection.

·       Understand that transportation space and availability and cold chain storage space will influence shipment sizes.

·       Track vaccine drawdowns. This is important for shipment scheduling and to not have more product at a destination than there is temperature protection space.

·       Recognize destination and origin-destination differences. This is not a one-size-fits-all approach. It must understand and adapt to the product and operating realities.  This is important.

·       Assign countries to ship to if there are multiple production sites.

·       Collaborate and coordinate with destination supply chain people on transport and warehouse issues, space, local nuances, providers, and other issues.  This should be ongoing.

·       Determine special needs as to cold chain and/or cool chain temperature for storage, transport, sanitary, chain of custody. Do this for each tier of transport and storage for vials unopened and opened.  Chain of custody is important to manage the product requirements, operational events, and to prevent criminals from theft, and to restrict counterfeits.

·       Analyze space and service needs for air cargo and cold/cool chain storage.

·       Calculate for each destination as to shipments sizes, ready release dates, and the number of shipments.

·       Calculate storage needs at the origin, including production rate and build inventory timing and releases/drawdowns.

·       Calculate storage needs for each destination.

·       Focus on door-to-door speed.

·       Minimize the number of handlings, stops, and transfers of products to mitigate temperature and contamination problems.

·       Understand destinations—airports, adequacies for storage and moving vaccine safely.

·       Define what carriers, warehouses, and transport/logistics providers can do as to product requirements, shipment/storage over the total timeframe, and sanitary conditions. Do it for origin, destinations, and intermediate locations.

·       Secure contractual firm space and service commitments by origin-destination (not by an aggregate or macro basis) to meet what is required for product requirements and time to perform, including variation, for transport and warehousing.  Lock it up.

·       Conclude transport and storage capabilities with production and distribution plans.

·       Set the technology to follow the movement of the vaccine—bar code, RFID, or other.

·       Maintain temperature integrity. Track end-to-end temperature.

·       Monitor chain of custody.

·       Achieve maximum E2E visibility, technologies, and technology integration.

·       Understand Customs requirements at destination airports to speed movement and quick handling from planes landing and shipping to end destinations.

·       Quantify that hospitals, doctors, and other medical/pharmaceutical places that will dispense vaccine can handle for safe handling and storage.

·       Ensure needed supplies of syringes, swabs, bandaids, gloves, and other needed PPE at each dispensing destination location.

The above would present the ideal, Plan A model.  But the best-laid plans, including expected shortages of air cargo and cold chain storage infrastructure and capabilities and stability, a Plan B, a C, and even D or more to have the needed scope and viability, are useful to be ready for the just-in-case and to cover all the needs, especially temperature related. 

Here the purpose is to identify, assess, and mitigate risks/problems. This would include:

ü      Identify areas/points where there are inadequacies, including destination alternatives in  the event of transport and/or storage shortcomings.

Analyze potential performance problem areas.

ü Review ways to improve performance door-to-door and mitigate delays. Big ways to lesser ways. For example, for customs clearance and freight payment.

ü Assess gaps between needs and space availabilities.

ü Evaluate technology gaps, such as for visibility.

ü Create alternative lanes for transportation routes and storage for coverage.

ü Develop cooling alternatives and how and where best to use them.

The plan that is developed for the vaccine also has to be prepared for other events that can affect the operations.  For example, what if there was a global demand surge for CoViD monoclonal antibody therapies that would compete for many of the same supply chain resources as the vaccine?

There is much work to be done.  Much is at stake here.  And much to do it--the required process, technology, organization, and logistics infrastructure.  A supply chain team in place early to design a program—then to manage it.  The size and complexity of the project demand it.