Sunday, June 14, 2015


Upcoming financial contagion to be Asian

Monday, June 15, 2015  Hong Kong Standard

As of Wednesday, global investors have taken US$9.3 billion (HK$72.54 billion) out from stocks in developing countries, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
According to EPFR Global, Asian markets saw the worst of it, with outflows hitting US$7.9 billion, the highest level in 15 years.
Ever since the US ended its quantitative easing and considered raising interest rates, the outflow of funds from emerging markets started.
The MSCI Emerging Asia Index tumbled more than 10 percent in September and October.
Due to Europe's own QE launch and other factors, global liquidity increased, and the MSCI index rose from January to April.

But with European economic data becoming better, a stronger euro and the US set to raise rates at least once this year, the worry is that global liquidity will shrink in the course of the year. So from the end of April until last week, the MSCI index again went down nearly 10 percent.
It is a fact that the European economy will not recover completely so quickly.
And even if the US were to raise rates this year, the pace with which it does so will not be fast.
From last year's as well as the recent MSCI data, US and European policies have affected Asian stocks. These policies will also one day return to normal.
So if there really will be a financial crisis every decade, then the next crisis will break out in Asia and spread elsewhere, the only question is will it be in 2017 or before that. Andrew Wong Wai-hong is an independent commentator